About a lifetime ago, or about ten weeks ago, if you want a non-melodramatic-oh-my-God-I-am-turning-40-description, a FanGraphs article came out that is worth your time. We discussed principles from the article in-depth earlier, and principles from that article regarding the Dodgers’ (relative) struggles with center-cut fastballs.
Based on collaborative discussions that players have had with Freddie Freeman. the Dodgers have developed a more collaborative approach to hitting based on first-hand observation rather than strict-iPad usage, as discussed in an excellent article by Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic.
But a thought occurred to me when I was in Kansas City watching the Dodgers fumble with the bases loaded, only to capitalize when Trea Turner was given a literal second opportunity in the same game. Had things improved? I decided to check for myself and then check again once life had gotten in the way. The answer might surprise you.
The Dodgers with the bases loaded in 2022
To answer the question: have the Dodgers gotten better with the bases loaded? A little bit.
Now one might argue that it is not fair to criticize players over such a small sample size, but ultimately we are judging an outcome (or lack of one) for a scenario that does not happen every game. But considering that playoff statistics are often just as small of a sample size, which might be an apples-to-potatoes comparison, we pay attention to them. If dig into the statistics, we might appreciate just how good these Dodgers are, now that the 2022 regular season has come to a close.
But when it does, sometimes it pays off handsomely.
The 2022 Dodgers were exceptional in many ways. However, they were less than exceptional in the following areas:
One-run games: 16-15 (a product of so many blowout results, in which they were 42-8)Extra-inning games: 6-9The Dodgers with fastballs down the middle of the plate (explained more here with charts as of the middle of the season, which has actually gotten worse for Trea Turner and Justin Turner, but better for Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger – that Fangraphs essay needs a revisiting in the next couple of days.)
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The Dodgers’ ‘hard mode’ problem
So let us revisit the premise, comparing the 2022 Dodgers in the regular season as a team to the rest of the league. (The chart will work best if you look at it in landscape mode if you are on a mobile device.)
2022 Dodgers vs. MLB with the bases loaded
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Baseball, unlike other sports, can truly tell you a story through the numbers if you know where to look. As you can see from the chart, which is best viewed in landscape mode on mobile devices, is that the Dodgers were not terrible with the bases loaded. That dubious distinction belonged to the Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies, Oakland Athletics, and Seattle Mariners. Yeesh.
Granted, we are dealing with a niche situation, which, again is a testament to how historically good the Dodgers have been this year in virtually every aspect of play. When looking at this situation over the season, the Dodgers underachieved just a bit with the bases loaded, as a sub-.700 OPS would indicate. It is a testament to how good the season went when I have to do a deep dive in obscure statistics to find genuine points of criticism. I suppose I could write a “Craig Kimbrel is pitching / we are all doomed article” but considering that I took the opposite position, which is now moot, I would rather not argue against myself if I can help it.
As a rough apples-to-apples comparison of equal attempts with the bases loaded, oddly enough, the closest comparison is the San Francisco Giants, who have also not been terrible with the bases loaded. The Giants clearly had bigger problems in 2022. In fact, in this one area, if the Dodgers hit more like the Giants (oh that clause felt so wrong to write), that might be a couple of extra wins. Oh darn, the Dodgers could have had 113 or so wins. Talk about a rich man’s problem.
I am not qualified to answer that particular question, but when I saw Joey Gallo ground out to end the game against the Marlins in Miami and then when I saw Trayce Thompson pop out against the Cardinals in Los Angeles, I started thinking about revisiting this little experiment again.
As you can also see on this list, some teams hit out of their mind in with the bases loaded in 2022. I support this conclusion based on the BABIP figure, as anything over .350 is a clear sign that you have either been lucky as heck or you are playing out of your mind. Note to self, you, and the Dodgers: please do not let the Mets, Padres, Atlanta, or the Asterisk Astros load the bases. The stats seem to indicate that doing so would be a “very bad” to “pretty bad” idea.
Those who can and those who have not
So overall, the Dodgers collectively hit .252/.289/.384 with the bases loaded. Essentially, the Dodgers, collectively turn into Whit Merrifield of the Blue Jays (.250/.298/.375 all season, including his time with the Royals) when the bases are loaded. That’s not great, but it was not 2021 Cody Bellinger bad, so take the analysis where it lies. But the final result does beg the question as a fan: who SHOULD you have wanted up when the 2022 Dodgers had the bases loaded?
The Dodgers have had most of their batters in this position as of this article. Because I acknowledge that a small sample size is a thing, to qualify for this chart, a batter needs at least five plate appearances. Also, a batter needed to still be with the team (Sorry Jake Lamb, I hope that you had fun in Seattle, it was fun to watch you, except with the bases loaded, while you were here). Now that leaves us with twelve batters.
2022 Dodgers players with the bases loaded
So as you can see, you wanted Will “Pickle” Smith, Freddie Freeman, or Justin Turner up when the 2022 Dodgers had the bases loaded. Mookie Betts on September 22 finally got his first walk-off hit with the Dodgers, which happened to be with the bases loaded. His BABIP in this situation had been subpar in this situation, so he had been a bit unlucky this past regular season in this regard.
If you want to win, do not let the Dodgers hit with runners at second and third
So to conclude this piece, if you want to sound smart to your friends regarding Dodger baseball (and admittedly you should have them read what we come up with here so everyone can sound smart), then you can console yourself with the following statistical tidbit.
If the Dodgers as a whole were a middling Blue Jay with the bases loaded, then the Dodgers as a whole are hitting 50 points better than Paul Goldschmidt, the probable NL MVP. When the Dodge la dodgers mlb jersey numbers 2022 rs hit when they have runners at second and third, they had a better slash line than Goldy (Goldschmidt hit .317/.404/.578/.981 this year).
No thanks, I’m full: Dodgers were dynamite with runners on 2B & 3B
No one will sneeze at a slash line of .377/.455 /.605. That’s an MVP-caliber, all-time season. Granted, the BABIP was insane at .427, but as of right now. No one would scoff at those statistics. They say that the season starts anew for the postseason, which is quite true.
However, a deep dive into these statistics show that it was not just you. the 2022 Dodgers were mortal when they had the bases loaded. As to what will occur during the postseason tournament is anyone’s guess, but it will likely be well worth the watch. mlb the show 21 la dodgers roster
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